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Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is a scientific commentator
Four years ago this week, the World Health Organization declared the rapid spread of the new coronavirus a pandemic. No corner of the globe has been spared from the disease, which has so far infected at least 770 million people and claimed the lives of more than 7 million people.
The UK has pulled out all the stops in the race for a vaccine, thanks in part to current research into coronaviruses; In December 2020, it became the first country to launch a comprehensive vaccination programme. But according to the leader of the effort, some valuable lessons learned during the crisis are at risk of being lost.
Kate Bingham, a healthcare investor and former chair of the independent Vaccine Taskforce, told the BBC this week that some of the group's guiding principles, such as bringing industry expertise into government, have since been pushed back. She said that while it is encouraging to see the government continuing to support mRNA vaccines through an agreement with Moderna, it has withdrawn from deals with other companies offering different vaccine platforms. Relying on mRNA as a cure for the pandemic was “a bit like saying we've discovered cruise missiles and this is now our solution to all potential defensive deterrents, when in reality you might need short-range missiles.”
She is right to assert that future pandemics can be better managed by maintaining a diverse portfolio of primary vaccines for multiple pathogens – and that pandemic preparedness is not taken as seriously as military preparedness. Even amid the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the threat of disease remains ever-present and unpredictable. Avian influenza has reached penguins in Antarctica and the World Health Organization is currently reviewing its list of potential pandemic pathogens. Despite talk of Covid as a once-in-a-century event, there is no law of pandemics that says the next Covid-level crisis, or worse, cannot happen in our lifetime.
Bingham notes that, although well-connected, she is no longer in government and may be missing part of the picture. To be fair, vaccines have not fallen out of favor: in addition to the government's 10-year partnership with Moderna, AstraZeneca last week pledged to invest £650m across its sites in Liverpool and Cambridge, focusing on vaccine research, development and manufacturing. The government also signed an advance purchase agreement with CSL Seqirus to supply vaccines in the influenza pandemic. Meanwhile, the UK's Health Security Agency has absorbed some of the terms of reference of the defunct taskforce; Fortunately, ministers support the G7 ambition of being able to produce a vaccine within 100 days of sequencing the pathogen.
However, the anniversary provides the opportunity to question whether the UK is paying broad enough premiums. Maybe not. While Moderna and AstraZeneca specialize in mRNA and viral vector vaccines respectively, there are other types of vaccines that were once thought worth pursuing but have since been abandoned. During the pandemic, the government signed and then canceled a deal with France-based Valneva to manufacture Covid vaccines that fully inactivate the virus.
This approach uses a dead form of the entire virus, not just a piece of it. While some Covid vaccines designed solely on the spike protein require updating against the Omicron variant (such as the Moderna vaccine), whole-virus vaccines are thought to be more durable. The cancellation of Valneva cost taxpayers nearly £360 million and led to the mothballing of a factory. Last year, the government asked Novavax, another maker of non-mRNA vaccines, to repay $112 million spent on purchasing vaccines it later did not want. It also sold its Vaccine Manufacturing and Innovation Centre, described as a key piece of preparedness infrastructure, in 2022. Consistency is important.
Darius Hughes, Moderna's UK managing director, agrees with Bingham that “the government must put in place… [pandemic preparedness] “Eggs are in more than one basket,” but she points out that she is betting on more than just mRNA. He adds that factors beyond the type of vaccine are also important: monitoring, speed of clinical trials and manufacturing.
With a strong NHS and life sciences sector, the UK could become a global vaccine superpower. The Federation of the British Pharmaceutical Industry says that this ambition depends on “[making] We certainly do not forget the lessons we learned during the pandemic.” These include maintaining close working partnerships between industry, academia, the NHS and government.
Four years after the global pandemic was declared, we all want to forget and move on. Since we do not know when the next crisis will come, we would be wise to remember – and to be in a position to act quickly.
