The latest UC Berkeley Institute of Government poll co-sponsored by The Times shows Republican Steve Garvey with a slight lead with days remaining in the U.S. Senate primary.
The poll shows a marked rise in support for the former Dodger in a race featuring three well-known Democrats — Reps. Adam B. Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.
It's the latest indication that Garvey could win one of the two seats in the general election, which still heavily favors the Democratic candidate.
How did Garvey get here? Here is an explanation from the pages of The Times:
Primaries: Good for Garvey
Garvey is favored by 27% of likely voters, Schiff by 25%, and Porter by 19%. Lee (D-Oakland) received 8%, while 12% of likely voters chose a different candidate and 9% were undecided.
In fact, Garvey and Schiff are tied because the difference is within the poll's margin of error,
General Election: Good for Schiff
Schiff (D-Burbank) will be the favorite to beat Garvey in heavily Democratic California. The poll found that Schiff starts with a wide lead in the one-on-one showdown, 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. By contrast, the general election between Schiff and Porter (D-Irvine) will start tied, with 4 in 10 voters undecided in the poll.
Garvey mutation
In a blue state like California, it might seem surprising that a Republican could take the lead in a primary. But this is unusual. The Democratic primaries are intensely competitive, with Porter and Schiff considered key figures in the party, while Lee is a popular figure on the left. So they split the Democratic vote in the deep blue state.
In early polls, Garvey was not doing well. But recent polls have shown an increase in his popularity, especially among Republicans.
Why? Garvey's campaign had spent just $1.4 million through mid-February, a fraction of the money raised by Schiff and Porter.
But Garvey had some help from Schiff.
Rep. Adam B. Schiff, left, former Dodgers star Steve Garvey, and Rep. Katie Porter
(Los Angeles Times)
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Schiff spent more than $25 million on television ads, most of which portrayed the contest as a two-candidate race between himself and Garvey. An outside group of Schiff allies spent nearly $10 million additional on a similar effort.
“Two major candidates for Senate. “Two very different visions of California,” says one narrator, later noting that Garvey is “too conservative for California” and voted for Donald Trump twice.
Times political reporter Benjamin Oreskes explained the strategy this way: “While the message will alienate Democratic voters in the state, it may also increase the former baseball player's appeal to Republican voters — as it was designed to do, according to two political strategists.”
Rep. Adam B. Chef.
(Jacqueline Martin/Associated Press)
Porter denounced Schiff's tactics. “We need honest leadership, not political games,” she said.
But political experts were not surprised.
In the words of Times columnist Mark Z. Barabak: “The calculus is clear. Schiff hopes to win the Senate seat in the March 5 primary by pushing his weakest potential opponent, Garvey, into a runoff in November. Sassy\brassy? certainly. Is it cynical or anti-democratic, as some critics claim? Not a little. …This is politics at the end of the day. Not a patty cake.
Voter turnout
There's another factor that could help Garvey on Tuesday: the expectation of low voter turnout. Political consultants tracking the results of mail-in ballots expect Tuesday's primary to be low in turnout, with voters who are older, whiter and more Republican than the overall electorate in the state as a whole.
Reading list
Times Voter Guide
Your guide to California's US Senate elections: The race to succeed Sen. Dianne Feinstein
Your guide to California Senate candidates' views on housing and homelessness
Climate Voters Guide for California Senate Elections
Times editorial board approval (opinion)
In depth: Senate candidates
Long before taking on Trump, Adam Schiff's pursuit of tough justice defined his career
From working with the Black Panthers to calling for a ceasefire, Barbara Lee stands by her beliefs
How Katie Porter uses her candid style and experience as a single mother in her Senate campaign
Steve Garvey touts 'family values' in Senate bid. Some of his children tell another story
