In the month after former President Trump left office in 2021, Matt Pottinger, who was the point man on China on Trump's National Security Council, told me in an interview that if Trump had stayed in office for a second term, he might have moved to a position of “all-hands-on-deck” of the economy. America about China.
However, John Bolton, who served as Trump's third national security adviser, predicted in early 2021 that if Trump were re-elected, he “may have returned to friendly relations and a disastrous trade deal.” [with China]Only for beginners.
These conflicting statements indicate the unpredictability of Trump's actions regarding China. It also raises the question of how Chinese President Xi Jinping and his aides view the 2024 US election and the possibility of another Trump presidency.
In this country, false logic has taken hold. Trump speaks tough on China and promises a wave of new tariffs on imports. So, according to this thinking, China should not want Trump back in the White House; Xi will support President Biden's re-election.
This conclusion is wrong. Not only is China unconcerned about the prospect of a second Trump presidency, it would prefer it to a continuation of Biden and the Democrats.
First, Trump is precisely the kind of leader that China knows how to deal with. He has a huge ego and believes that only he can solve problems through deals that he believes only he can make. Remember: Trump believed that only he could persuade North Korea to curb its nuclear weapons program by meeting with its leader, Kim Jong Un. His clumsy deal-making efforts led to a lot of drama and no results.
China has a history of treating powerful officials through flattery, personal connections, and financial rewards. Chinese leaders prefer such officials over those preoccupied with impersonal rules or laws.
During the Trump presidency, we have seen China use these levers. With the help of real estate deals and trademark grants, the Chinese have established relationships with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. Chinese officials also spent millions of dollars on hotels owned by Trump. There is no doubt that such efforts will revive in Trump's second presidency.
Trump supporters will point out that Biden's son Hunter also did business with China, trading on his father's name and authority. But Hunter's business interests were minimal compared to those of Trump's company, and no one has presented convincing evidence that Joe Biden benefited from his family's foreign dealings.
Far from appealing to Trump's ego, Beijing sees his foreign policy goals as a significant improvement over Biden's.
China's main geopolitical concern these days is to avoid the series of alliances and partnerships that the Biden administration has assembled in response to its policies. The President has strengthened US relations with Japan, South Korea, and Australia. He announced new American bases in the Philippines; Strengthening bilateral cooperation with Vietnam; They enlisted European countries to help confront China in the areas of trade, technology and sanctions.
On the other hand, Trump was disdainful of American alliances in his first term, and more so in his recent campaign statements, where he questioned America's NATO commitments, supported ending aid to Ukraine, and offered words of praise to authoritarian leaders such as Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban, Who was at Mar-a-Lago on Friday.
Most importantly, Trump promises a new, warmer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom China has established a “borderless” partnership in 2022. If Trump is re-elected, he may lift sanctions on Russia.
From China's point of view, America separating itself from its allies and getting closer to Russia would be ideal. America's withdrawal from the world stage gives China ample room to express its international ambitions.
Finally, China recognizes that it is a Democratic administration, not a Republican, that is more likely to act tough rather than just talk tough.
It is true that while Trump was in the White House, the United States moved away from engagement and began to treat China as the geopolitical and trade adversary it had become. But this might have happened under any president, given the underlying factors: China's aggressive actions abroad, and the American business community's growing dissatisfaction with China's commercial espionage and intellectual property theft.
Trump was willing to impose tariffs on China, even though his predecessors were not. But Biden not only continued those tariffs, he imposed new restrictions on technology trade that went far beyond anything Trump had done to challenge the Chinese — notably as he imposed restrictions in 2022 and tightened them a year later on China's access to semiconductors and chip-making equipment. Such efforts seem likely to continue if Democrats retain the White House.
And then there's this: Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods were groundbreaking, but less well-known is that he also entered into a trade deal with China — “it won't get any bigger than this,” he said — that proved a failure. In exchange for Trump's modest tariff cuts, China pledged to buy $200 million worth of American exports. The Chinese have never come close to fulfilling this promise.
Based on his track record, it seems fair to expect that if Trump returns to the White House, he will begin with rhetoric against China. Then, with an eye toward personal diplomacy, he may look for another business deal he can promote, regardless of its real outcome.
Trump's promises to weaken US relations with its allies, his selfish approach to diplomacy, and his tendency to hype and underdeliver will only make it easier for Beijing to achieve its global ambitions.
China is not afraid of Trump. He relishes the prospect of returning to the presidency.
James Mann, author of three books on the US relationship with China, is a member of the Foreign Policy Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
