People shop at the Macy's store in Herald Square on January 19, 2024 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Consumer spending rebounded in February after falling in January, with a little help from Leap Day. But sales still posted good gains even after correcting for that extra spending day.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Index, derived from actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, rose 1.06% in February, excluding auto and gas. It rose 0.95% at checkout as well, the Retail Observatory's primary measure.
Removing the effect of leap day, sales rose 0.4%, or less than half of the unadjusted gain, but still up from the 0.2% decline in January. Excluding restaurants, the leap day-adjusted retail index rose 0.3%, compared with a 0.04% increase in January.
“While the future direction of interest rates and inflation remains uncertain, it is clear that a strong labor market and increases in real wages continue to support spending,” said Matt Shay, president of the National Retail Federation.
Looking at individual sectors, not adjusted for leap day:
Online and other non-store sales rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis and 18.08% year-over-year. Sporting goods, hobbies, music and bookstores rose 2.29% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis and 13.67% on a year-over-year basis. Health and Personal Care Stores rose 0.96% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis and 11.18% on a year-over-year basis. Clothing and accessories stores rose 0.51% month-over-month and 8.05% year-over-year, unadjusted.
Sector data was also affected by Leap Day and the index overall could differ more sharply this month from the Census Bureau's retail data than it normally does.
Unlike the survey-based numbers compiled by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity and is not reviewed monthly or annually.
Economists are looking for a 0.8% gain in Thursday's retail report, a complete reversal of the 0.8% decline in January. So these forecasts, if accurate, and the CNBC/NRF Monitor for February suggest that January was not the start of a long-awaited slowdown in consumer spending.
