President Biden, in his State of the Union address, reminded me of a cranky old grandfather flatly telling his anxious adult children: “Look, kids, I'm not getting out of the house. So we can forget about this.”
In this case it was the White House.
“I'm not leaving,” Biden insisted. He was talking about not abandoning American values. But I also heard something else:
He's not going out to the South Lawn and climbing aboard Navy Ship 1 to go by helicopter to a retirement home in Delaware. Not this year anyway.
Perhaps no one is more relieved than California Governor Gavin Newsom
Newsom would have been at the top of nearly every list of alternative Democratic candidates if the 81-year-old president voluntarily withdraws amid growing concern about whether he is too elusive and weak to last a second term. His fiery State of the Union address was supposed to ease the fears of many viewers.
Newsom never wanted to run this year anyway. He has long insisted on paying attention to “below zero.” This is completely believable.
If the position opens up now and Newsom takes advantage, he will almost certainly need to run against his old ally in San Francisco, Vice President Kamala Harris. That would make him a pariah in the party, especially among Black women, a key Democratic constituency, Newsom privately said. Therefore, he will defer to Harris.
At 56, Newsom, still youthful with his Hollywood looks, appears to be eyeing 2028 to run for president as he maneuvers to become a well-known, national political player. He is an ardent Biden surrogate who is constantly touting the president's re-election.
But if Biden wins re-election, Harris, 59, will be the first in line to succeed him in 2028. Will Newsom postpone it again? No one knows, maybe not even Newsom.
Newsom could be eyeing a Cabinet position, perhaps in energy or Interior. There he can continue his favorite battle against global warming.
But Newson isn't going anywhere political until he takes care of California's huge problems, most notably homelessness. He needs a track record to be able to promote battleground states, where voters instinctively suspect left-wing California.
Newsom certainly received a wake-up call in last week's primary when his preferred Proposition 1 performed much worse than expected. By the end of the week, it was too close to call.
The measure included $6.4 billion in bonds to build more treatment beds for homeless people with mental illness or drug addiction. It would redirect some existing funding away from preventive care and target people who are already homeless.
So Newsom lacks the influence of voters in his home state. He is not in a position to run for president, even if Biden withdraws.
Biden's courageous performance will reduce the governor's hounding by journalists inquiring about his desire to run for president. Politicians are always happy to be mentioned as a potential presidential candidate. But answering the same questions in the same way over and over again becomes surprising.
More broadly, the president's speech should downplay calls for Biden to step down.
“Clear, direct and powerful,” Newsom said of the speech in a social media post.
Biden's State of the Union address was actually one of the best speeches any president has given in a long time. Strong, full of energy and direct. No nuances. Lots of common daily talk. It may be a bit too edgy for some, but it fits the national moment.
He highlighted his record, looked to the future, and even added some humor.
“In my career, I've been told I'm too young,” Biden said to laughter. .
“The issue facing our nation is not how old we are. It is the age of our ideas. Hate, anger, revenge, and retribution are the oldest ideas. But you cannot lead America with old ideas that only lead us backwards…. You need a vision for the future and what can and should be done.” “Tonight, you heard my voice.”
Democrats applauded. Republicans are blatant.
That's pretty much how the speech ended and it was good, although I was already imagining different end words.
I'm one of those wannabe thinkers pointed out by Times columnist Jackie Calmes last week. Before the speech, I would have preferred Biden to steal President Lyndon Johnson's classic line in his 1968 televised speech about the Vietnam War:
Accordingly, I will neither seek nor accept my party’s nomination for another term.”
Johnson withdrew on March 31 because he believed he could not win against the growing anti-war rebellion in the Democratic Party. New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy had just entered the race. Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy has been running for weeks. Johnson may also have anticipated health problems.
Unlike Johnson, Biden's main problem is age. I never believed he was too old to handle the job. But millions of Americans believe it is. Many may withhold their votes in November, handing the key to the White House back to the hateful Donald Trump.
Trump, 77, is almost as old as Biden. He is a man who shows signs of mental slippage. But that doesn't seem to bother the MAGA cult.
Polls show Biden trailing Trump — slightly but steadily.
Biden can reverse that by riding the momentum of the State of the Union and campaigning personally and aggressively among voters, showing his energy, warning against Trump's threat and showing humor.
One thing's for sure: Old Grandpa won't leave the house unless the voters push him. And Newsom is happy.
