California is lagging behind on greenhouse gas reduction goals

Wind turbines rise above an array of solar panels at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power's wind farm and solar plant in the Tehachapi Mountains in Kern County.

(Irrfan Khan/Los Angeles Times)

California is expected to fail to meet its ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals by the end of the decade unless it can triple its efforts to reduce carbon emissions statewide, according to a major new report.

Although the state has pledged to cut greenhouse emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, the state is not on track to meet that commitment, according to an analysis by the nonprofit group Next 10 and Beacon Economics, a Los Angeles-based consulting firm. .

Based on the latest data available from the state, emissions are down only 11.5% from 1990 levels.

“Policymakers have set this goal and now need to make tough decisions about trade-offs if they want to achieve it,” said Stafford Nicholls, research director at Beacon.

While pollution fell after stay-at-home orders were issued during the pandemic in 2020, the state's carbon emissions increased 3.4% the following year, according to the analysis.

That would make it harder to meet the goal state lawmakers set in a 2016 bill known as SB 32.

Based on the path of reductions since 2010, California will not meet the target until 2047, according to the report's authors.

The report said that the rise in emissions in 2021 was driven by increased electricity generation. Because of the drought that year, the state used less hydroelectric power and compensated with more power from natural gas-fired power plants, Nichols said.

That year, there was also a 7.4% jump in emissions from transportation as pandemic restrictions eased. Not only are Californians returning to their cars in 2021, but more people are avoiding public transportation. The researchers found that ridership in 2022 was 40% lower than before the pandemic, hindering the state's progress in reducing passenger vehicle emissions.

The report, called the California Green Innovation Index, provides an annual snapshot of the state's decarbonization efforts. Nichols said researchers were frustrated that state officials took longer to release emissions data. He said the numbers for 2021 were released just two months ago.

He said calculations using more recent data would likely drive the need for a faster pace of carbon reduction to meet the 2030 target.

The head of the California Air Resources Board — the agency charged with overseeing greenhouse gas reductions — disputed the study's finding and insisted California is on track to meet its goals.

“Our preliminary data shows that in 2022 emissions are starting to decline,” said Leanne Randolph, appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to lead the board.

Although California's economy rebounded 8% in 2021, emissions increased only 3.4%, Randolph noted.

“To me, this shows that our programs are working,” she said. “It shows that we're not just growing our economy, we're fundamentally growing a cleaner economy.”

Newsom spokesman Alex Stack added: “We don't shy away from ambitious goals, because that's what it takes to make a difference. Our administration and CARB are taking action to achieve these goals.”

Details in the new report show how far the country has yet to come. The researchers calculated that the state reduced emissions by an average of 1.5% annually between 2010 and 2021. To reach the 2030 target, it must now cut emissions by 4.6% per year.

California has only succeeded in reducing emissions by more than 4% annually twice in the past two decades, and both 2009 and 2020 were times of economic recession.

Despite the report's predictions, the authors acknowledged that California is the third most carbon-efficient state, after New York and Massachusetts. According to the report, California's carbon intensity is 8.8% lower than the national average.

While emissions from electricity production rose in 2021, they are still down more than 40% since 2000 and 12% since 2016.

The state also met its 2025 goal of having 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road two years early, although electric vehicle sales fell for the first time in more than a decade late last year.

F said: “Although California is well-positioned as a climate leader, there are significant obstacles to accelerating our decarbonization efforts in an equitable way that benefits all Californians,” said Noel Perry, founder of Next 10. “These issues are not insurmountable, but we must act urgently.”

The researchers highlighted how California could eliminate emissions by finding ways to decarbonize cement plants in the state. This industry accounts for 2% of the state's emissions. Greenhouse gases emitted by the eight plants that produced nearly all of the state's cement increased by 26% from 2011 to 2021.

While California plants are marginally more efficient than the average U.S. cement plant, they emit 33% more pollutants than those in China and India, the report said.

The new report isn't the first to detail how the country is failing to meet its climate goals.

In a report released last year, the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, which advises state lawmakers, estimated that emissions have fallen at a rate of about 1% per year over the past decade and would need to decline by 4% per year. That report said the California Air Resources Board lacks a “clear strategy” to meet the 2030 goal.

“The agency’s estimated reductions are driven primarily by the assumptions made by CARB, without specifying how those assumed outcomes will be achieved,” that report said.