As President Biden and former President Trump march steadily toward their parties' presidential nominations, Tuesday's Michigan primary could reveal significant political stakes for both.
Trump, despite dominating the early Republican contests, faces a bloc of stubborn GOP voters who favor his only remaining rival, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and who are skeptical at best about the former president's prospects in a rematch against Biden.
As for the incumbent, Biden may face his biggest electoral hurdle yet: a vibrant movement of disillusioned voters upset with his handling of the war in Gaza, and a relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that critics say has been too supportive.
Those dynamics will be put to the test in Michigan, the last key primary state before Super Tuesday and a crucial swing state in November's general election. Even if they eke out dominant victories as expected on Tuesday, both campaigns will be scanning the margins for signs of weakness in a state that went for Biden by 3 percentage points in 2020.
Biden said in a local radio interview in Michigan on Monday that it will be “one of the five states” that will determine the winner in November.
Michigan has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country. More than 310,000 people are of Middle Eastern or North African origin. Nearly half of Dearborn's 110,000 residents claim Arab descent.
Voter at a polling station in Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan.
(Paul Sancia/Associated Press)
It has become a focus of Democratic discontent with the White House's actions in the war between Israel and Hamas, now nearly five months old, following the deadly Oct. 7 Hamas attack and kidnapping of more than 200 hostages. In response, Israel bombed much of Gaza, killing nearly 30,000 people, two-thirds of them women and children, according to Palestinian figures.
Democrats, angry at Biden's support for the Israeli offensive and their resistance to calls for a ceasefire, are mobilizing voters on Tuesday to choose “non-committals” instead of Biden.
The “non-committal” effort, which began in earnest a few weeks ago, has received support from officials such as Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American woman in Congress, and former Rep. Andy Levin, who lost the Democratic primary for two years. Before that, after pro-Israel groups spent more than $4 million to defeat him.
The effort is “a way for us to vote for a ceasefire, a way for us to vote for peace and a way for us to vote,” said Abbas Alawiya, spokesman for the “Listen to Michigan” campaign, which urges voters to choose “Not Committed.” Against war.”
Shaher Abdel Rab, 35, an engineer from Dearborn, said Tuesday morning that he voted for Trump. Abdel Rab said he believes Arab Americans have more in common with Republicans than Democrats.
Abdel Rab said he voted for Biden four years ago, but believes Trump will win the general election in November, in part because of the support he will receive from Arab Americans.
“I'm not voting for Trump because I want Trump. I just don't want Biden,” Abd Rabb said. “He [Biden] He did not call for stopping the war in Gaza.”
Trump won the state by just 11,000 votes in 2016 over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, then lost the state four years later by nearly 154,000 votes to Biden. Alawiyah said the “non-committal” effort aims to show that the movement has at least a number of votes equal to Trump’s margin of victory in 2016 to show how influential that bloc is.
Alawiyah said: “The situation in Gaza is at the top of the concerns of many people here.” “President Biden is failing to provide the voters against whom war crimes are being committed with American taxpayer money – he has failed to provide them with something to vote for.”
Our Revolution, the organizing group previously associated with Sen. Bernie Sanders (R-Vermont), also urged progressive voters to choose “Uncommitted” on Tuesday, saying it would send a message to Biden “to change course now on Gaza or risk losing Michigan to Trump in November.”
California Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), a Biden supporter who held several meetings and hearings in Michigan late last week, said he told community members that despite his differences on the war, he would support Biden because he represents a better chance for peace in the Middle East. Much more than Trump's chance.
“I also said I admire those who use their votes in a quintessentially American way to effect policy change,” Khanna said Monday, adding that Biden supporters need to proactively engage with disengaged voters to try to “reclaim their votes.” trust.”
“The worst thing we can do is try to shame them or try to belittle their efforts,” he said.
Trump has drawn enthusiastic crowds at most of his rallies, including his Feb. 17 rally outside Detroit that drew more than 2,000 people packed into a frigid airplane hangar.
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Data from AP VoteCast, a series of surveys of Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, reveal that his primary voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50, and generally without a college degree. He may have to attract a more diverse group of voters in November. He performed poorly in suburban areas that are crucial in states like Michigan.
Many of Trump's preferred candidates in the 2022 Michigan midterm elections have lost their campaigns, confirming his loss of political influence in the state. Meanwhile, the state's Republican Party is plagued by divisions between various pro-Trump factions, which could weaken its strength at a time when Michigan Republicans are trying to lay the groundwork for Biden's defeat this fall.
Both Biden and Trump have so far dominated their primaries. Biden notched Democratic victories in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, the latest win coming through a write-in campaign. Trump has swept all of the early contests in Republican states, and his team hopes to secure the delegates needed to secure the nomination by mid-March.
However, Haley promised to continue her presidential primary campaign until at least Super Tuesday on March 5, when 15 states — including California — and one territory will hold contests for the Republican nomination.
As Haley stumbled in Michigan on Sunday and Monday, voters who attended her events expressed enthusiasm for her in Tuesday's primary — even though as she lost the first four states of the year, it seemed increasingly likely that she would not win the nomination.
“It seems honorable,” said Rita Lazdins, a retired microbiologist from Grand Haven, Michigan, who in an interview Monday declined to mention Trump by name. “Honor is not what this other person is. I hate to say it, but it is very true.”
Associated Press writers Meg Kennard in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Joy Cappelletti in Lansing, Michigan, contributed to this report.
