Many Americans are not excited about the 2020 presidential election being rerun in November. But presumptive Republican Party nominee Donald Trump appears to be sparking more anger and fear among Americans with his opposing party than President Biden does with his own.
A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that Democrats are more likely to report feeling “scared” or “angry” about the prospects of another Trump term than Republicans are about the idea of Biden remaining in the White House. .
However, the emotional reaction Trump inspires may also work to his advantage, as the poll also found that Republicans are more enthusiastic about the prospect of a Trump win than Democrats are about a Biden win.
Seven in 10 Democrats say “angry” or “scared” describes their feelings “very well” or “very well” about the possibility of Trump winning. A smaller majority of Republicans — 56% — say the same about Biden's reelection. About 6 in 10 Democrats cite both sentiments when thinking about Trump's victory. Again, this exceeds the roughly 4 in 10 Republicans who said they would feel angry or fearful about a Biden win.
These results are notable in an unusual campaign that pits the current president against his predecessor, with both men facing skeptics within their parties and among independents. The boost in support from Republicans who backed Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries could pose a challenge to Trump. Biden faces frustrated progressives to his left and concerns about whether his age, 81, poses a handicap in office.
Excitement about the candidates will be an important factor in a race in which turnout from each side's base will be key. But hatred can motivate voters as much as enthusiasm.
“If there's a third-party candidate who has a chance in hell, I'll vote for him,” said Austin Healey, a 26-year-old Democrat. Healey, who describes himself as “very liberal,” said his divergent views of Biden are tempered by his concerns that Trump's comeback bid “seems like an obvious ploy to try to undo democracy.”
Haley said that although he is “not excited about it,” it means voting for Biden.
Derrick Johnson, a Michigan voter who identifies as an independent liberal, offered plenty of criticism of Biden as well. But the 46-year-old caregiver and caterer made his conclusion clear: “Donald Trump is a crazy man. I'm afraid he will involve us in World War III. “My message is to anyone but Trump.”
Democrats' strong feelings toward Trump explain the sweeping differences in how Americans view the two rivals. Overall, about 4 in 10 American adults say “fear” would describe their feelings “extremely” or “very good” if Trump is elected again, while nearly 3 in 10 would fear a second Biden term. About 4 in 10 American adults said they would be angry about a Trump win in November, while 28% said the same about Biden.
The poll's findings on negative sentiment may be particularly important for Biden given his other weaknesses, including that Republicans remain more enthusiastic about electing Trump again than Democrats are about re-electing Biden. Just over half of Republicans, 54%, said “enthusiastic” describes their feelings about another Trump term as “very good” or “very good.” For Biden, that number was 4 in 10 among Democrats.
“We know what we're going to get with Trump,” said Republican John Novak, a 54-year-old maintenance worker who lives in the swing state of Wisconsin, and who counts himself among those GOP loyalists who would be eager for another Trump term.
“I knew who he was when he came down that elevator in 2015, and we weren't getting any scouting material,” Novak said. He added: “But he put conservatives on the Supreme Court, and he was tough on immigration…and he is a conservative who took over the economy.”
The latest AP-NORC poll showed Biden with an overall approval rating of 38%. Adults in the United States have also expressed dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and immigration — and not all disapproval is driven by partisan loyalties. About 4 in 10 American adults approve of Biden's management of the economy, roughly equal to his job's overall approval rating.
On specific issues, about 3 in 10 Democrats disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy; About 4 in 10 disapprove of his approach to immigration or border security.
“The situation at the border really bothers me,” said Johnson, a liberal from Michigan. “Border crossings are getting out of control.”
The president and his campaign advisers praise the Biden administration's legislative record, especially on infrastructure, an improving economy and new spending aimed at combating climate change. But the president and his allies also don't hesitate to criticize Trump as only interested in “revenge and avenge” his 2020 defeat and his anger over the pending criminal prosecutions and other legal troubles that followed.
They seized on Trump's praise of authoritarians like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian President Viktor Orban and recirculated the former president's statement that he would be willing to act like a dictator for a day to close borders and expand fossil fuel drilling.
Trump responded with scathing attacks on Biden's mental acuity and fitness for the presidency, and even mocked Biden's stuttering. But recent poll results suggest that Trump has not yet maximized the potential benefits of those attacks — or they may simply have a lower payoff for him.
Biden sometimes turns his version of the argument into a humorous quip he used often in 2020, when he was vying to unseat Trump: “Don't compare me to God; Compare me to the alternative.”
Indeed, this is what resonates with wavering Democrats and some independents.
“I voted for Trump [in 2016] “Because I wanted someone to shake up Washington,” said Neil Murray, a 67-year-old retiree in Jonesboro, Arkansas, who describes himself as an independent. “He certainly did, but he couldn't do anything productive with it.”
Frustrated by Trump's negative qualities that he dismissed in 2016, Murray voted for Biden in 2020 — but not enthusiastically. He described Biden as “disingenuous on some things” and too close to the left wing of the Democratic Party on economic policy.
But Murray said he would have no reservations in November about casting his second vote for the Democratic nominee, because “Donald Trump is a screaming lunatic.”
The poll of 1,282 adults was conducted March 21-25 using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Barrow and Sanders write for the Associated Press. Barrow reported from Atlanta and Sanders reported from Washington.
