There are lots of ways to describe what's happening to Earth's climate: global warming. Climate change. Climate crisis. Universal strangeness. They all try in different ways to capture the phenomena caused by weather systems in our world. However, despite the options available in the thesaurus, it is still a very difficult concept to make relatable.
However, researchers at MIT may finally have an answer. Instead of forecasting Category 5 hurricanes or record-breaking heat days, they developed a tool that lets people see how many “outdoor days” their region might see between now and 2100 if the growth of carbon emissions remains unchecked.
The results may be uncomfortable or uncomfortable, depending on where you live.
For people in California, France or Germany, things don't look so bad. The climate will not be quite as hospitable in the summer, but will grow milder in the spring and fall, adding from a few days to nearly a month of outside weather compared to historical records. The UK will be better off, with 40 days outdoors by the end of the century.
However, not everyone will come forward. Some temperate places like New York, Massachusetts, China and Japan will lose a week or more of outdoor days. Elsewhere, the picture looks bleaker. Illinois will lose more than a month of days spent outdoors by the 2080s as summer heat becomes unbearable. Texas will lose a month and a half for the same reason.
However, it is countries with some of the most vulnerable populations that will suffer the most (scientists have warned). Summer in Nigeria will become hotter and longer, cutting off nearly two months of outdoor days. India will lose nearly two and a half months.
It doesn't have to be this way. Even if the world fails to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 – but can still achieve it by 2070 – the situation will improve dramatically. Nigeria and India will each lose just one month of outdoor days, with northern regions retaining some of their additional outdoor days.
Risk assessment
The MIT tool is a closely related application to the field of study known as climate scenario analysis, a branch of strategic planning that seeks to understand how climate change will affect different regions and demographics. It's not a new field, but as advances in computational power have fostered more sophisticated climate models, it has become more widely applicable than before.
A group of startups are using this newfound predictive power to help shape an uncertain future.
Many startups in this space are focusing on addressing this uncertainty for investors, lenders and insurers. Jupiter Intelligence, Cervest and One Concern all focus on those markets, providing clients with dashboards and data feeds they can customize to suit regions or even assets of interest. The startups also identify risks of floods, wildfires and drought, and will provide reports detailing the risks to assets and supply chains. They can also issue regulatory disclosures, highlighting relevant climate risks.
Investors and insurance companies are concerned about how climate change will impact assets and supply chains, so much so that these startups have attracted some real money. Jupiter Intelligence raised $97 million, according to PitchBook, while Cervest raised $43 million and One Concern raised $152 million.
While major financial institutions are an obvious customer base for climate forecasting companies, other markets exposed to the outdoors also need solutions.
ClimateAI targets agriculture, including agribusinesses, lenders, and food and beverage companies, all of which have seen droughts, floods and storms decimate crops. As a result, water risk assessment is a key feature of ClimateAI's forecasts, although it provides other weather and climate data as well. The startup has raised $37 million to date, according to PitchBook.
Sensible Weather operates in markets a little closer to home for most of us. It provides insurance for people who embark on outdoor events and activities, from live concerts to camping and golf. It works with campgrounds, golf courses, live event operators and more, allowing them to give customers the option to secure their outings against inclement weather. It's an approach that has landed the startup $22 million in funding, according to PitchBook.
As more companies and consumers become aware of how climate change will impact their lives, their demand for certainty will create a wealth of new markets that will provide these startups and their peers with significant opportunity to expand. Climate scenario analysis, once the domain of academic laboratories and insurance companies, appears to be about to enter the mainstream.
